There’s Still Hope for the NFL’s Seemingly Terrible Rookie Quarterback Class

First-year quarterbacks have collectively gone 1-10 as starters to start the season

Trevor Lawrence grimaces after losing to the Bengals. This year's crop of rookie QBs has been bad, but historically, there's some room for optimism
Trevor Lawrence of the Jacksonville Jaguars walks off the field after losing to the Bengals.
Dylan Buell/Getty

In the first start of his NFL career on Sunday against the Browns, former Ohio State quarterback Justin Fields was sacked nine times by Cleveland defenders — including a franchise-record 4 1/2 sacks for Myles Garrett — and held to just 1 net yard passing as the Bears lost 26-6 to fall to 1-2 on the season.

Fields, who was selected at No. 11 overall in April’s after Chicago moved up the board to get him, is not the only rookie quarterback to struggle this season in the NFL as first-year signal-callers have collectively gone 1-10 to start the season.

Along with Fields, the Patriots’ Mac Jones (1-2), the Jaguars’ Trevor Lawrence (0-4) and the Jets’ Zach Wilson (0-3) have all been less-than-impressive despite being picked high in the draft at No. 15, No. 1 and No. 2, respectively, and the lone win out of the bunch came when Jones’s Patriots defeated Wilson’s Jets. (Another rookie QB, Trey Lance, was drafted at No. 3 by the 49ers but hasn’t started a game for San Francisco, yet.) Fields, Jones, Lawrence and Wilson haven’t just not been good — they’ve been historically bad, according to FiveThirtyEight.

“The triumvirate of first overall pick Lawrence, No. 2 Wilson and No. 15 Jones account for more than 23% of the interceptions thrown in the league so far this season,” per the publication. “Fields — the 11th overall pick — and Wilson alone account for nearly 12% of the sacks. In Fields’s only start, he passed for a grand total of one (1) net yard. Combined, the four rookies have a completion percentage of 57.4, 9.6 points below league average, and 5.75 yards per pass attempt, 1.73 yards below league average. Their Total QBR is an abysmal 26.4.”

As poor as things look right now, there’s hope for this class. Remember, Peyton Manning threw 11 interceptions in his first four starts for the Colts, Troy Aikman led the Dallas Cowboys to an 0-11 record in his first season and John Elway was benched multiple times as a rookie. All three players were unimpressive in their first seasons and all three are now in the Hall of Fame.

Currently, in Jacksonville, New York, New England and Chicago, we’re seeing four quarterbacks on the field who, if their situations were different and teams were better, might otherwise be riding the pine and learning instead of playing.

“Four QBs who perhaps just aren’t quite ready to lead their teams on the field are performing a high-wire act and learning as they go,” per FiveThirtyEight. “There’s still reason for hope, but if history is any indication, we should also be open to the notion that one or more of these guys is actually pretty bad. And for those franchises, unfortunately, that means that it’s back to the drawing board.”

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