There’s no way to predict for sure if first-round picks Baker Mayfield, Sam Darnold, Josh Allen, Josh Rosen and Lamar Jackson will have success in the NFL, but we can at least take an educated guess as to when we’ll have the chance to find out.
Of those five players, none project to be their team’s opening day starting quarterback at this point, but some have an easier path to getting on the field for meaningful minutes than others.
Without taking into account injuries or trades, ESPN’s Bill Barnwell estimates that Mayfield will take over for incumbent Tyrod Taylor in the second half of Week 8, although the Browns would be better served to start him beginning in Week 12.
With regard to Darnold, Barnwell predicts Darnold will take over for Josh McCown after he (inevitably) gets hurt, but think the Jets would be better off handing Darnold the reins to start the season or at the beginning of next year.
Somewhat similarly, Barnwell sees Rosen starting when Sam Bradford gets hurt in Arizona and Jackson taking over for Flacco in Baltimore after this season is over.
Last but not least, Barnwell anticipates Allen will take over in Week 13, but should take over in Buffalo as soon as Week 5.
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