On Sunday night, HBO will air the third season finale of The White Lotus, meaning one character will join the ranks of poor Armond and Tanya and become the latest person to perish at the luxury resort. There’s been a lot of death — both literal and spiritual — hinted at so far this time around, and there are a surprising number of characters whose potential demises feel feasible.
Will Greg kill Belinda to shut her up about Tanya’s murder? Will Timothy mercy-kill his shallow family to spare them from a world in which they’re no longer rich? Will Gaitok finally pull the trigger on that gun that’s been following him around all season? Will a monkey get ahold of a weapon? (Hey, it’s possible!) We’ll have to wait until this weekend to find out for certain, but in the meantime, we’ve ranked all the show’s main characters below by how likely they are to be the body floating in the water that we caught a glimpse of in the premiere.

15. Zion
We know Belinda’s son is not the body floating in the water in the opening scene because we’ve already seen he’s the one who discovers the body. Unless there’s more than one victim and he winds up getting caught in the crossfire, he’s safe.

14. The Russians
Valentin and his buddies seem unlikely to be the ones who die because, in my mind at least, they’re most likely to be the ones doing the killing. With last week’s reveal that they’re the robbers who targeted the hotel earlier in the season, it seems all but guaranteed they’re going to return for more in the finale. When we last saw Aleksei, he was asking Laurie for $10,000 immediately after sleeping with her; her refusal, while a wise financial decision, makes her an easy target. He knows she’s rich and tried asking nicely first — now he’s gonna get that $10K however he can.

13. Chloe
Chloe is simply an agent of chaos. She’s not there to learn or grow or represent any big overarching theme — she’s there to convince two blood relatives to make out with each other. Having her be the one who dies would be a waste.

12. Victoria
If there’s one thing Mike White loves to remind us of every season on The White Lotus, it’s that rich people have a tendency to show up, ruin the lives of everyone around them and leave with little-to-no consequences while the working-class people they become entangled with are left to clean up their mess. Victoria Ratliff is exactly this type of rich person. The only way she’s the one who dies is if she’s able to finally find that bottle of lorazepam.

11. Laurie, Jaclyn and Kate
Like Victoria, our favorite bickering friend group seems likely to survive based simply on their massive privilege. Their vanity will definitely put them in harm’s way — like I said above, I’m all but certain the Russians are going to show up and try to rob them — but their story will most likely end with the three of them left to reassess their toxic friendship and go their separate ways (or revert back to being fake as hell and pretend like nothing happened).

10. Saxon and Lachlan
Look, most of us would rather die than have a sexual encounter with our siblings, so murder or suicide or a murder-suicide are always a possibility for the incest brothers, but that’s too easy. It seems much worse — and thus, more satisfying from a narrative perspective — for them both to survive and have to live with the knowledge of what they did for the rest of their lives.

9. Gary/Greg
The whole Greg/Belinda storyline feels like a red herring to me. It’d just be too obvious. But there would be some poetic justice to Greg being the one to kick the bucket after he killed Tanya last season.

8. Belinda
Like I said, Belinda dying is too obvious. Does that mean it’s 100% not happening? No, and having a murderer know you’re aware of his crimes is never a good thing. But I still think there’s a chance she’ll decide to take his bribe and move on with her life.

7. Piper
I don’t think any of the Ratliff siblings are going to die, but if I’m wrong, Piper would make the most sense. She’s the only true innocent in her family, so her death would certainly be symbolic, and her quest to escape all their bullshit and become a better person is what brought them all to Thailand in the first place.

6. Timothy
Once again, too obvious. He’s ranked this high on the list because he’s very obviously suicidal and has been for multiple episodes. But fortunately for him and his family, the murder-suicide he’s been fantasizing about appears to have been foiled by Gaitok taking back his gun. Tim no longer has easy access to a weapon, but will the poisonous fruit he’s asking about in the teaser for the finale get the job done anyway?

5. Rick
Rick’s certainly done enough to put himself in the line of fire. When the bodyguards of the old guy he knocked over find out what he did, they could come looking for him. And his partying with Frank and the strippers doesn’t bode well either. Rick dying could symbolize him choosing darkness over light, vengeance over forgiveness, and represent the ways holding onto grudges and not letting go of past trauma can destroy a person. But the fact that he didn’t immediately kill the guy he thinks is responsible for his father’s murder shows maybe he’s not a totally lost cause.

4. Pornchai
This one’s a bit of a wildcard, but hear me out: We haven’t seen Belinda’s co-worker/love interest in a while, and the last time we did, he was suggesting she stay in Thailand and open up a spa with him where they could, presumably, live happily ever after. There are still loose ends to be tied up here, and his death would also represent the death of Belinda’s dreams. She deserves a break, though, so fingers crossed he lives.

3. Chelsea
She’s the most likable character on the show, so her potential death would certainly be impactful. And she’s already had several brushes with death so far this season, including getting bitten by a poisonous snake because her boyfriend got high in the middle of an existential crisis and decided to release all the slithering creatures. There’s also the fact that she said, “I am hope and Rick is pain, and eventually, one of us will win.” Maybe Rick’s pain — his decision to visit and sort of assault his father’s murderer — will bring the old guy’s bodyguard to their doorstep, and Chelsea will get killed in the crossfire. Pain winning out over hope is a pretty grim way to end a show, but The White Lotus has always been about harsh realities.

2. Gaitok
Gaitok has been flirting with violence — both literally and figuratively — the entire season, so it seems natural for all of that to come to a head in the finale. Let’s say the Russians come back and rob the hotel again. After everything he’s gone through since he failed to stop them last time — being called soft, nearly losing his job, being friendzoned by the woman he has a crush on because she doesn’t think he’s ambitious enough — it seems likely he’d leap at the chance to redeem himself. Could that involve dying in a shootout? He’s been carrying around the show’s Chekhov’s gun for most of the season; eventually it’s gotta go off.

1. Mook
Mook has basically been the devil on Gaitok’s shoulder all season, so her death would represent a triumph of good over evil in one sense — she’d finally get the violence she’s been egging on for so many episodes. She’s also a hotel employee who yearns for a more extravagant life, which makes her both a victim of and an eager participant in capitalism, something that would, of course, make for a significant White Lotus demise. There’s also a theory floating around online that Mook is somehow involved with the Russians’ robbery plot, that perhaps she’s been using Gaitok, flirting with him and stringing him along so he’s sufficiently distracted from his job securing the hotel. If that’s the case, it’s certainly possible this information might come to light in the finale somehow, whether in the chaos of another robbery or elsewhere. Wouldn’t it be fitting if the woman who’s been encouraging Gaitok to embrace toxic masculinity and violence all season gets shot by him after he learns of her betrayal? Her death would complete his transformation from sweet, hapless romantic to the stone cold killer everyone’s been trying to get him to become.
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