If the Eagles are going to shake their Super Bowl hangover, they are going to need water, coffee, and wins.
Sitting at 3-4 after blowing a 17-point, fourth-quarter lead to the Carolina Panthers on Sunday, Philadelphia’s odds of returning to playoffs are just 45 percent, according to FiveThirtyEight’s Elo prediction model.
And those are just the odds of making the postseason, not making it back to the Super Bowl to defend their title.
Of the 52 teams that have attempted to defend an NFL championship dating back to 1967, just four have started the season with a worse record than the Eagles over their first seven games.
Their Elo rating has also plummetted since the preseason thanks to the rough start and only 11 past Super Bowl winners lost more points in that metric compared to Philly.
If they are going to get right, the Eagles have to start with a win this week on Sunday in London against the Jacksonville Jaguars, also 3-4. A win would boost Philadelphia’s playoff chances up to 53 percent, but a loss would knock them down to 30 percent.
“Defending champs rarely find their season hanging in the balance in Week 8,” according to FiveThirtyEight. “But if Philly doesn’t correct some of its problems against the Jaguars, the Eagles could quickly find themselves staring at one of the biggest post-Super Bowl letdowns in NFL history.”
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