NFL Kickoff: What to Know About the NFC South and How to Bet It

The first meaningful pro football game since Super Bowl LVII will take place on September 7 and we’re counting down the days until the upstart Detroit Lions head to Kansas City to take on the defending champion Chiefs in primetime on NBC and Peacock in the NFL Kickoff Game.

Each day we publish new content from now until Lions-Chiefs, we’ll be previewing a division in the NFC or AFC and analyzing how likely or unlikely it is that each of the four divisional rivals will go over their projected win total. To help with that over/under analysis, we’ve enlisted Thomas Gable, the director of race and sportsbook at the Borgata Hotel Casino & Spa in Atlantic City. Today, we’ll break down the NFL’s NFC South.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 8-9 in 2022, ’23 O/U 6.5 wins

A member of the Carolina Panthers to start last season after being jettisoned from the Browns for Deshaun Watson, Baker Mayfield closed out the year as the starting quarterback for the Los Angeles Rams and played reasonably well for a team that was playing for nothing. The Buccaneers apparently saw enough from the former No. 1 overall pick to bring him to Tampa Bay to compete for the starting job with former Tom Brady backup Kyle Trask, and Mayfield won the gig. So, for the second straight season, Mayfield will start the year as a starting quarterback in the NFC South.

It’s somewhat of a soft landing spot for Mayfield as the NFC South projects to be the worst division in the NFL and Tampa projects as the division’s worst team. Expectations for Mayfield will be pretty low, but he may be able to exceed them thanks to the presence of top wide receivers Mike Evans and Chris Godwin on the roster. Tampa’s offense will look markedly different with new offensive coordinator Dave Canales calling the shots and there’s undoubtedly a chance Mayfield gets benched in favor of Trask if things get ugly for the Bucs. Without Brady there to make Tampa respectable, it will fall to head coach Todd Bowles to keep his team competitive. That may be difficult to do as loading up for Brady has left this year’s roster depleted of talent.

“When you look at this division, I would draw a line right through Tampa and call it a day,” Gable says. “I don’t think anyone’s expecting anything from this team and I think Todd Bowles gets fired at some point during the year. They have Baker Mayfield, and Mike Evans and Chris Godwin are one of the best duos of wide receivers in the league, but I think this team has a lot of problems. Outside of Evans and Godwin, there isn’t much to work with. I would go under.”

Carolina Panthers, 7-10 in 2022, ’23 O/U 7.5 wins

Wandering in the quarterback wilderness since releasing Cam Newton prior to the 2020 season, the Panthers traded up to the No. 1 spot in the 2023 draft so they could select quarterback Bryce Young. Undersized for his position, Young will have to get the ball out fast as Carolina’s offensive line is weak and has allowed him to get hit a number of times in the preseason. Panthers head coach Frank Reich favors a spread offense centered on four- and five-receiver sets so Young should have plenty of targets, but there’s no guarantee he’ll have the time to find them. Either way, expect former Eagles running back Miles Sanders to get lots of backfield work for his new team.

Surprisingly competitive after a midseason coaching change, the Panthers should theoretically be better with Young than they were with any of last year’s three starters. Of course, that’s dependent on Young being healthy and not being a bust. Young comes from an Alabama program that’s recently produced a couple of serviceable NFL starters (Tua Tagovailoa, Mac Jones) and had a hand in developing a possible superstar (Jalen Hurts), so there’s reason to hope the 22-year-old is the real deal.

“I’m cautiously optimistic about this Panthers team. They lost D.J. Moore but they did bring in D.J. Chark and Adam Thielen in free agency and also drafted wide receiver Jonathan Mingo at no. 39 overall,” Gable says. “Can Bryce Young stay healthy? If he can stay on the field and develop, I wouldn’t be opposed to taking a shot on Carolina even to win this division. The Panthers do have a capable backup in Andy Dalton if needed. Getting pressure on the opposing quarterback was an issue last year. I still believe in Frank Reich as a coach even though things didn’t work out for him in Indy. I would play the over.”

Philip Rivers Was Almost a San Francisco 49er Last Season

If the San Francisco 49ers had been able to beat the Eagles and make it to the Super Bowl, they would have given Rivers a call

New Orleans Saints, 7-10 in 2022, ’23 O/U 9.5 wins

While the past two seasons of the Jameis Winston experience in New Orleans in the post-Drew Brees era have not been an absolute disaster, they also have not been a success as the Saints have not been a playoff team. What they have been is respectable and second-year coach Dennis Allen has to hope they’ll be more than that this season after bringing in veteran quarterback Derek Carr and paying him handsomely. Carr will be extremely motivated to have a good season despite already getting paid as he will want to prove that the Raiders made a mistake by benching him last season and then letting him walk.

Relatively strong on defense thanks to a veteran unit that’s led by the seemingly ageless Cam Jordan, the Saints also appear to have a star at wide receiver in second-year player Chris Olave. If standout Michael Thomas can get back to being the player he was three years ago and dual-threat running back Alvin Kamara has gas in the tank when he returns from suspension, the Saints could have the best offense in the division. A lot of that depends on Carr, who everyone is betting will be better than Winston was. If he’s not, Jameis is waiting in the wings and is at least capable of keeping the Saints hovering around .500

“This is not a good division overall, so the Saints should be the rightful favorites,” Gable says. “They added Jamaal Williams at running back, but a lot is going to depend on Derek Carr. I think Chris Olave should be able to gel with Carr pretty early, but I don’t know how much we’re going to see Michael Thomas. That guy has missed 40 of his last 50 games. It’s unbelievable. They will be able to generate pressure and I’d look for them to create more turnovers than they did last year. They underachieved by only creating 14 last season. With Alvin Kamara missing some games, I would go under the total.”

Atlanta Falcons, 7-10 in 2022, ’23 O/U 8.5 wins

A team that is drawing a lot of hype thanks to the trio of offensive players Atlanta has taken in the first round of the last three drafts — tight end Kyle Pitts, wide receiver Drake London and running back Bijan Robinson — the Falcons are a trendy pick to make a huge lead this season and make the playoffs for the first time in six seasons. If they do, it’ll go a long way to ensuring that head coach Arthur Smith will keep his job for at least one more season. Smith isn’t necessarily in the hot seat if the Falcons miss the postseason, but they’ll at least need to show some improvement to keep the third-year coach from feeling some heat.

A third-round pick last year, quarterback Desmond Ridder spent most of his rookie season backing up Marcus Mariota and failed to do much in his four starts. Somewhat of a dual-threat QB, Ridder will have to get the ball in the hands of all the playmakers the Falcons have selected over the past three years in order to avoid the team looking elsewhere for a long-term solution at the quarterback position. On the other side of the ball, new coordinator Ryan Nielsen should be able to scheme up some interesting game plans thanks to the additions of defensive linemen Calais Campbell and David Onyemata, edge rusher Bud Dupree and linebacker Kaden Elliss.

“Desmond Ridder doesn’t give me a ton of confidence. In Ridder’s defense, he had a bad offensive line and didn’t have Kyle Pitts in his four starts last season, but I still don’t have a ton of confidence in him,” Gable says. “Defensively the pass rush needs to improve as they only had 21 sacks last season. They have invested in the pass rush in the offseason so hopefully they see some improvement there. I am excited to see Bijan Robinson on the field, but I would say Arthur Smith is probably in the hot seat. I would lean under.”