Don't Freak Out, But an Asteroid Might Hit Earth in 2032

Pop culture is rife with depictions of asteroids on a collision course with Earth. The idea of a celestial body heading right for us — and bringing catastrophe with it — has been used to tell stories that can be action-packed, satirical or melancholy. But what if the next big “asteroid threatens us all” story was a documentary?

As NPR’s Scott Neuman reports, an international organization has issued its first-ever warning about an asteroid that could maybe, possibly collide with our planet in 2032. On January 29, the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN) released a notification about the potential impact — which, to be fair, only has a 1.3% chance of occurring. Still, that’s not zero percent.

IAWN believes that the asteroid, 2024 YR4, is between 130 and 300 feet in length, and predicts “[s]evere blast damage in the unlikely event of an impact,” which could take place on December 22, 2032.

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At present, the areas at risk are “[a]cross the eastern Pacific Ocean, northern South America, the Atlantic Ocean, Africa, the Arabian Sea, and South Asia.” For now, astronomers will continue to monitor the asteroid throughout the year and will do so again in 2028 when it returns to the Earth’s vicinity.

Neuman provided some useful points of comparison, including that this asteroid is about twice the size of the meteor that exploded over Chelyabinsk, Russia in 2013. According to NASA, that impact injured 1,600 people in the area and damaged some buildings. If 2024 YR4 does make impact on Earth, it’s likely to do more damage — but, thankfully, not at the levels seen in the movies.