On Sunday night, the stars will hit the red carpet in pinstripes and tuxes at the 98th Annual Academy Awards, where they’ll find out — along with those of us tuning in at home — whose turn it is to receive Hollywood’s highest honor. The ceremony, which will again be hosted by Conan O’Brien, kicks off at 7 p.m. ET and will be broadcast live on ABC and Hulu. (Try not to ruin it this time, Hulu.) We’ll finally find out the answers to burning questions like “Did Timothée Chalamet really shoot himself in the foot with those comments about ballet?” and see whether it’ll be Sinners or One Battle After Another (or, in a shocking upset, one of the other eight films nominated!) that takes home Best Picture.
In the meantime, all we can do is speculate. If you need a little help making your picks for your office Oscar pool, we’ve got your back. Check out all our thoughts on who will win, who should win and who got snubbed in each of the major categories — in roughly the order they should be presented during the show.
Best Supporting Actor
Benicio del Toro, One Battle After Another
Jacob Elordi, Frankenstein
Delroy Lindo, Sinners
Sean Penn, One Battle After Another
Stellan Skarsgård, Sentimental Value
Who Will Win: Sean Penn
Who Should Win: Benicio del Toro
Who Got Snubbed: William H. Macy, Train Dreams
This year’s Best Supporting Actor field features five incredibly strong contenders, and it’s arguably the most wide-open race this year. Elordi won the category at the Critics Choice Awards back in January, and Skarsgård took home the Golden Globe. Sean Penn has the most momentum, though; he won at the British Academy of Film and Television Arts (BAFTA) Awards on Feb. 22 and took home the Actor Award (formerly the SAG Award) on March 1. His performance in One Battle After Another is an all-timer — the kind of big, iconic character work that will be remembered for years to come — so Penn seems like the safest bet here. There is a slight chance that he splits the One Battle After Another vote with del Toro, who is honestly probably the more deserving of the two. Penn spends much of the movie chewing scenery, but del Toro keeps things grounded; as Sensei Sergio St. Carlos, he’s a calming presence in an otherwise chaotic film, and his is a more subtle, nuanced performance. (Plus, we have him to thank for introducing the phrase “a few small beers” into the lexicon.) There’s also always the possibility that Academy voters will seek to honor Delroy Lindo’s vast body of work with a Sinners win to finally give him his first Oscar. Penn seems most likely, but this one’s truly a toss-up.
Best Supporting Actress
Elle Fanning, Sentimental Value
Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas, Sentimental Value
Amy Madigan, Weapons
Wunmi Mosaku, Sinners
Teyana Taylor, One Battle After Another
Who Will Win: Amy Madigan
Who Should Win: Teyana Taylor
Who Got Snubbed: Odessa A’zion, Marty Supreme
Save for Teyana Taylor’s Golden Globes victory, Amy Madigan seems to be the consensus favorite here. She won the category at the Critics Choice Awards and the Actor Awards, and her performance in Weapons is a textbook example of a strong supporting role — she’s only on screen for 14 minutes and 45 seconds, but she makes every moment count, and the movie simply wouldn’t work without her. It’s also the only opportunity for Academy voters to recognize Weapons, while all the other films represented here are nominated in additional categories. Wunmi Mosaku (who won the category at the BAFTAs) or Teyana Taylor could pull off an upset, but Madigan is the safest bet.
“One Battle After Another” Is Just as Good as Everyone’s Saying It Is
Paul Thomas Anderson’s latest film is his best to dateBest International Feature
The Secret Agent (Brazil)
It Was Just an Accident (France)
Sentimental Value (Norway)
Sirāt (Spain)
The Voice of Hind Rajab (Tunisia)
Who Will Win: Sentimental Value
Who Should Win: The Secret Agent
Who Got Snubbed: No Other Choice (South Korea)
It’s not too often we see two Best Picture nominees in this category. In fact, it’s only happened once before in the history of the Oscars, with Zone of Interest and Anatomy of a Fall in 2024. But this year, both The Secret Agent and Sentimental Value are also nominated for the biggest prize of the night (where they’re long shots), so it stands to reason that one of them will take home Best International Feature as a consolation prize. Sentimental Value has more nominations overall (nine, instead of four for The Secret Agent), and it’s received more mainstream attention than the other films, so it should be the favorite here.
Best Adapted Screenplay
Will Tracy, Bugonia
Guillermo del Toro, Frankenstein
Chloé Zhao and Maggie O’Farrell, Hamnet
Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another
Clint Bentley and Greg Kwedar, Train Dreams
Who Will Win: One Battle After Another
Who Should Win: One Battle After Another
Who Got Snubbed: Park Chan-wook, Lee Kyoung-mi, Don McKellar and Lee Ja-hye, No Other Choice
One Battle After Another and Sinners aren’t competing directly against each other in the screenplay category because the former is adapted and the latter is original, which means two things: 1) they are both absolute locks to win in their respective categories, and 2) we won’t be able to use the screenplay category as a hint about which film will take home Best Picture. Historically speaking, the winner of this category is a good indicator as to which movie is more likely to win the biggest award of the night; the Best Picture winner has also won in one of the two screenplay categories 62 times out of 97 Academy Awards ceremonies.
Best Original Screenplay
Robert Kaplow, Blue Moon
Jafar Panahi with Nader Saïvar, Shadmehr Rastin and Mehdi Mahmoudian, It Was Just an Accident
Ronald Bronstein and Josh Safdie, Marty Supreme
Eskil Vogt and Joachim Trier, Sentimental Value
Ryan Coogler, Sinners
Who Will Win: Sinners
Who Should Win: Sinners
Who Got Snubbed: Eva Victor, Sorry, Baby
As mentioned above, Sinners is the overwhelming favorite here, especially because it’s another opportunity to give director Ryan Coogler, who also wrote the movie, an Oscar. There’s a good chance that Academy voters will throw Coogler a (very deserved) bone here based on the assumption that he’ll lose Best Director to Paul Thomas Anderson. Any of the other nominees winning here — even the dialogue-heavy Marty Supreme — would be an absolute shock.
Best Director
Chloé Zhao, Hamnet
Josh Safdie, Marty Supreme
Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another
Joachim Trier, Sentimental Value
Ryan Coogler, Sinners
Who Will Win: Paul Thomas Anderson
Who Should Win: Paul Thomas Anderson
Who Got Snubbed: Guillermo del Toro, Frankenstein
It’s hard to believe that, despite a whopping 14 nominations, Paul Thomas Anderson has never won an Oscar — but that will almost certainly change on Sunday night. Anderson has already won Best Director at the BAFTAs, Critics Choice Awards, Golden Globes, Directors Guild of America Awards and Producers Guild of America Awards this year, and he seems poised to complete the sweep by adding some more hardware to his collection at the Oscars. And rightfully so: One Battle After Another is an impeccably directed movie. You can feel Anderson’s hand in every scene, from the elaborate car chase to the extreme close-up shots of his characters, and it’s the best movie in his already hugely impressive filmography.
Was Guillermo del Toro Right to Change the Ending of “Frankenstein”?
Is the director’s twist on Mary Shelley’s classic novel a Hollywood ending or an adjustment that fits the times?Best Actor
Timothée Chalamet, Marty Supreme
Leonardo DiCaprio, One Battle After Another
Ethan Hawke, Blue Moon
Michael B. Jordan, Sinners
Wagner Moura, The Secret Agent
Who Will Win: Michael B. Jordan
Who Should Win: Leonardo DiCaprio
Who Got Snubbed: Joel Edgerton, Train Dreams
This is one of the more fascinating races this year because the odds have shifted so dramatically. Timothée Chalamet began this awards season as the favorite for his performance in Marty Supreme, and he started off strong by winning at the Golden Globes and Critics Choice Awards. Leonardo DiCaprio was seen as his closest competition, but in a matter of weeks, Chalamet’s Vegas odds have plummeted from a 78% chance of winning to roughly 30%, and DiCaprio has completely fallen out of the conversation. That’s probably due to a few things: Chalamet lost at the BAFTAs last month (to a British actor who is ineligible for this year’s Oscars because his movie won’t be released in the States until April), he foolishly made some controversial comments about ballet and opera that rubbed people the wrong way before Oscar voting closed and Michael B. Jordan pulled off a surprise victory at the Actor Awards. The latter also happened before Oscar ballots were due, which means voters who were potentially concerned about throwing their vote away on a long shot were able to see Jordan as a viable option (and hear the way the room went nuts when his name was read). There have been rumblings that Chalamet’s speech at last year’s Actor Awards (still called the SAG Awards at the time) also hurt his Oscar chances. Some viewed the speech, where he declared that he’s “really in pursuit of greatness,” as arrogant. From where I sit, it was a refreshing departure from the usual faux humility we see at award shows, but the Oscars have always been more keen on the doe-eyed, “You like me, you really like me!” speeches, and many Academy members view Chalamet as “a cocky little shit.“
Best Actress
Jessie Buckley, Hamnet
Rose Byrne, If I Had Legs, I’d Kick You
Kate Hudson, Song Sung Blue
Renate Reinsve, Sentimental Value
Emma Stone, Bugonia
Who Will Win: Jessie Buckley
Who Should Win: Jessie Buckley
Who Got Snubbed: Eva Victor, Sorry, Baby
Out of all the acting categories, this is the surest bet: Jessie Buckley will without a doubt win Best Actress on Sunday night. Buckley has been raking in accolades for her portrayal of a grieving mother in Hamnet, including an Actor Award, a BAFTA, a Critics Choice Award and a Golden Globe, and there’s no reason to expect anything to change ahead of the Oscars. If Emma Stone can pull off an upset, she’ll become the youngest person to ever win three acting Oscars — but that doesn’t seem very likely with Buckley in her way.
Best Picture
Bugonia
F1
Frankenstein
Hamnet
Marty Supreme
One Battle After Another
The Secret Agent
Sentimental Value
Sinners
Train Dreams
Who Will Win: Sinners
Who Should Win: One Battle After Another
Who Got Snubbed: No Other Choice
It’s a battle of titans for Best Picture this year, with Sinners and One Battle After Another currently sitting neck-and-neck in one of the tightest races we’ve seen in years. Both movies tackle important social issues, and both have hauled in a truly impressive number of nominations in other categories. In fact, Sinners made Oscar history with its record-setting 16 nods, while One Battle After Another earned 13 — just one shy of the previous record. Another fun bit of Oscar trivia? The two films will compete in 11 of the same categories, setting a record for the most head-to-head races in a single Academy Awards ceremony.
That makes this one even tougher to predict, because there’s nowhere for voters to spread the love without choosing between the two; in other words, we can’t guess that voters might go with Ryan Coogler for Best Director to make up for choosing One Battle After Another for Best Picture, because they could just as easily do the opposite. Because they face off in so many smaller categories, we should be able to get a better sense of where things are headed as the night unfolds. But if we’re forced to choose right now, it seems like Sinners holds a slight — emphasis on slight — edge. One Battle After Another has been the heavy favorite for most of the year, but Sinners has the momentum after a big win for Outstanding Cast in a Motion Picture at the Actor Awards. People love an underdog, and the 1930s Mississippi vampire movie may just be peaking at the right time. It’s been 34 years since a horror film won Best Picture (the last was The Silence of the Lambs in 1992), and that may tip any genre fans who happen to be voting members of the Academy toward Sinners over One Battle After Another.
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