Prior to the kickoff of college football’s 2019 season, certain NFL fan bases were hoping their teams would “Tank for Tua” in hopes of locking up the No. 1 pick in the draft and selecting Crimson Tide quarterback Tua Tagovailoa.
But the 22-year-old Hawaiian was limited to just nine games over the course of his junior-year season thanks to a high ankle sprain and dislocated hip, both of which required surgery. The lack of playing time combined with the meteoric ascent of Heisman-winning LSU quarterback Joe Burrow lowered Tagovailoa to the clear No. 2 prospect in the upcoming draft — and many believe he should be ranked even lower. That includes oddsmakers at a variety of leading sportsbooks, who have installed the over/under for which pick Tagovailoa will be selected with at 4.5 and set the odds in a way that favors the over.
Sports betting reporter Josh Appelbaum of VSiN, who suggests using the “juice” next to a line (-115, +120, even, etc.) as an indication of what oddsmakers think will happen, notes that the over is listed at -225 at DraftKings, -286 at PointsBet and -235 at FanDuel.
“Much has been made about Tua’s injury concerns. And the buzz appears to be real,” Appelbaum tells InsideHook. “About a month ago his over/under draft position was 2.5. It then rose to 3.5. And now it’s moved even further to 4.5. Despite the slide, the juice is still leaning over across the market. This signals consensus across the market that Tua will go five or higher, either to Miami at No. 5, the Chargers at No. 6 or maybe even slide further.”
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In addition to his injury history, Tagovailoa’s size (six foot and 217 pounds) could also be a concern for some teams, but Appelbaum doesn’t think that worry will deter the Chargers enough to pass on him with the sixth pick.
“I think Los Angeles is probably the team you’re looking at,” he says. “There is a lot of linkage to Tua and the Chargers, so I think that’ll be his destination. Does he go past that? It’s possible, but I would assume unless they sign Cam Newton or Jameis Winston, Tua is going at No. 6 to the Chargers. That does make sense. [Oregon quarterback] Justin Herbert going at No. 5 to Miami is becoming more of a possibility based on his over/under and some juice that’s moving toward that spot. Burrow is definitely going No. 1 unless something crazy happens.”
After Burrow, Herbert and Tagovailoa, Appelbaum expects Jordan Love out of Utah State will be the only other quarterback selected in the first round.
“After rising greatly over the last week or so, the price on the under of 4.5 quarterbacks drafted in the first round is listed at -455 at PointsBet,” Appelbaum says. “A hefty price to pay, but based on the latest player over/unders and the buzz from experts, it looks like four is the magic number with Burrow, Tua, Herbert and Love as the only first-round quarterbacks. Burrow is a virtual lock to go first overall (-10000), Tua’s O/U is 4.5, Herbert is 5.5 and Love is 17.5. The next closest are Jacob Eason (Washington) at 47.5, Jake Fromm (Georgia) at 60.5 and Jalen Hurts (Oklahoma) at 62.5, which would all put them in the second round or later.”
Elsewhere in the draft, many pundits believe the Jaguars (No. 9), Raiders (No. 12) and 49ers (No. 13) may use their selections on wide receivers. But in a deep draft where the over/under for receivers taken in the first round has been set at 5.5 in many places, which receiver will go off the board first?
It’s only by a nose, but Appelbaum gives the slight edge to Jerry Jeudy out of Alabama over CeeDee Lamb out of Oklahoma.
“It’s pretty close,” he says. “They’re kind of neck-and-neck. The first wide receiver drafted at DraftKings is Jeudy +125, Lamb +130. At FanDuel, Lamb and Jeudy both have an over/under of 12.5, but the under with Jeudy is -138 and with Lamb it is -112. Basically, he’s pretty much even juice, whereas the juice on Jeudy is under. It’s a tossup, but it looks like Jeudy has a slight edge just based on books making you pay a higher price. Jeudy’s Alabama teammate Henry Ruggs isn’t far behind with a 13.5 draft position. He’s kind of a dark horse. The over is juiced up though to -130 or more. Taking Ruggs to go 14 or more is where the sharp money is.”
Place your draft bets accordingly — and we know you’re making them, since it’s almost literally the only thing Americans are able to wager on right now.
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