What Do Experts Predict for the US Wine Market in 2025?

A new in-depth analysis has plenty to offer

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What does this year have in store for the wine industry?
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It’s a challenging time for many in the wine industry, with recent data showing a drop in consumption in the U.S. last year. Will those trends continue this year and beyond? Silicon Valley Bank’s State of the U.S. Wine Industry 2025 report, written by Rob McMillan, takes a clearheaded look at where the industry is right now — and where it might be headed. (The report also contains a few reconsiderations of what last year’s report got right — and wrong.) Here are four big takeaways from the report.

Generational Divides Are Widening

Early in the report, McMillan draws the reader’s attention to what he calls “the contrast between the preferences of older, high-spending wine consumers and the newly emerging 21-year-old demographic.” This, in his opinion, explains a lot — from the significant growth at the highest levels of premium wine to white wine’s sales growth outpacing that of red wine.

There are other ramifications for this as well. McMillan predicts that the premium side of the industry “will return to zero growth between 2027 and 2029” as a result of Boomers continuing to age and reducing their wine consumption. He also sees this generational shift manifesting in another way as well: with some winery owners selling their businesses after reaching a certain age.

Are Tasting Rooms in Trouble?

One of the trends spotlighted in the report is a shift in behavior regarding winery tasting rooms since many reopened in the wake of the pandemic. McMillan cites “quiet but widespread concern in the premium wine community regarding the decline in visitation.” He chalks this up to a few factors, including older wine aficionados prioritizing family-related travel since the pandemic and younger drinkers being alienated by the growing cost of wine at tasting rooms.

Cannabis Might Be Reducing Demand for Wine

Throughout the report, McMillan points to a number of alternatives to wine that could be eating away at its market position among younger drinkers. This doesn’t just apply to the rise of zero-proof beverages; McMillan also considers the impact of cannabis on the industry. McMillan writes that cannabis might be “a possible partial explanation for the youngest consumers’ avoidance and abstinence from alcohol” — noting that its legality in a growing number of states contrasts with the legal landscape of a decade or two ago.

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Different Generations Like Different Drinks

Near the end of the report, McMillan cautions the industry to not assume that younger drinkers will eventually shift their tastes to wine over beer and spirits. While this pattern did take place with Boomers, it wasn’t necessarily the case for the generation before then — and an incorrect assumption, he warns, could be disastrous for the industry. “Once a consumer group develops a consumption pattern, it will take an external force to modify it,” he writes — something that shouldn’t be taken for granted.

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