Experts Predict a Complicated 2026 for the US Wine Industry

It’s been a challenging period for domestic winemakers based in the United States. Some of that can be chalked up to changing tastes, with alcoholic beverages in general losing some ground, including when it comes to restaurants pairing beverages with food. There are also some uniquely environmental issues at play, including the effects of wildfires on wines made in the Pacific Northwest.

What about the broader economic currents? For more than a quarter of a century, Silicon Valley Bank has provided an annual forecast of the domestic wine industry, and 2026 is no exception. This year’s State of the U.S. Wine Industry report highlights an industry navigating a turbulent period, albeit one that appears to be stabilizing. (It also includes a rundown of what last year’s report did and did not predict, which is a welcome touch.)

Silicon Valley Bank’s predictions include mixed signals for the industry. The market stabilization is a positive development, but it won’t be without some pain. The report cites “a picture of a market still challenged, but one with stabilization on the horizon.” The authors of the report also predict that some wine producers will shut down in 2026. They anticipate that this could paint a misleading picture of the industry, arguing that coverage of those businesses “will obfuscate progress from upper-quartile businesses and the improvement that I expect to see from a slowing rate of decline.”

One Winery Turned Smoke-Damaged Grapes Into Barbecue Sauce

A creative solution in the wake of wildfires

One concerning detail that emerged from the report is the continuing problem of oversupply. A total of 59% of survey respondents said that their supply of wine was “well over” or “moderately in excess” of what they would require based on demand. The industry isn’t out of the proverbial woods yet, but the report does predict “a shift back to modest growth” in consumer spending on wine after 2027-28. That’s news worth raising a glass to.

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Tobias Carroll

Tobias Carroll lives and writes in New York City, and has been covering a wide variety of subjects — including (but not limited to) books, soccer and drinks — for many years. His writing has been published by the likes of the Los Angeles Times, Pitchfork, Literary Hub, Vulture, Punch, the New York Times and Men’s Journal. At InsideHook, he has…