This is NFL Best Bets, a recurring series in which professional sports handicappers lend us their insights and picks for the most intriguing matchups for each week of the football season.
For this edition of Best Bets, Chris Altruda, a national betting industry analyst for PennBets.com, Thomas Gable, the director of race and sportsbook at the Borgata Hotel Casino & Spa in Atlantic City, and sports betting reporter Josh Appelbaum of VSiN share their opinions on five Week 14 games, including the Vikings heading to New Orleans to take on the Saints on Christmas and the Titans going to Green Bay to play the Packers on Sunday Night Football.
You’ve got places to go, people to see and possibly some wagers to make, so let’s get to it.
Minnesota Vikings (6-8) (+260, +7, O/U 51.5) at New Orleans Saints (10-4)
A compelling matchup because … losers of two in a row, the Saints are a game behind the Packers in the race for the top seed in the NFC with two weeks left to play. Meanwhile, the Vikings have also dropped two straight and are hanging on to their postseason hopes by a thread. Minnesota is just 4-6 in conference play in the NFC, while the Saints are a sparkling 8-2.
Altruda’s Angle: Before we breathlessly rush to judgment that 41-year-old Drew Brees is washed up after a shaky return from multiple broken ribs and a collapsed lung, realize there was a method to Sean Payton’s madness in letting him play in last Sunday’s 32-29 defeat to Kansas City. Payton likely wanted to gauge how close to 100 percent Brees actually is and let him work through the rust of a four-game absence. While the Saints are now a longshot to claim the top seed in the NFC, the loss mattered little in terms of division and conference tiebreakers. Brees now has a short turnaround against a Vikings defense that has been battered by injuries all season and was battered some more Sunday at home by the Chicago Bears. As a result, Minnesota is playing for its postseason life and is on the verge of wasting excellent individual offensive seasons by running back Dalvin Cook and stud rookie receiver Justin Jefferson. Yet that has been the problem with the Vikings throughout quarterback Kirk Cousins’s three years under center — Minnesota’s parts are greater than the sum of its whole. Look for Brees to be better and defensive end Cameron Jordan to have a monstrous game to atone for his game-changing ejection versus Kansas City. I’m willing to lay the touchdown with the Saints but line-shop to try and lock in a low-side hook at 6.5.
Gable’s Guess: Minnesota’s defense allowed 397 total yards to the Bears which, when you think about what the Bears usually put up offensively, is really quite amazing. The Saints, despite losing to the Chiefs, need one win to clinch their division. Brees got off to a slow start last week and finished 15-of-34 for 234 yards with three touchdowns and one INT. WR Michael Thomas is going to remain on injured reserve. It looks like the Saints are pretty intent on making sure he’s healthy for the postseason. Minnesota comes into this 3-2 against the spread as a road underdog this year. My concern here is what the Bears did against them. They have the 28th best rushing offense in the league and they just tore up the Vikings. The Saints have a much better running attack. What’s going to happen now that the Vikings really have nothing to give an effort for? I’m going to lay the points here with the Saints.
Appelbaum’s Assessment: The Vikings (6-8 ATS) just fell to the Bears 33-27 last week, losing outright as 3-point home favorites. Meanwhile, the Saints (7-6-1 ATS) just lost to the Chiefs 32-29, pushing as 3-point home dogs. New Orleans has already clinched a playoff spot and is currently the No. 2 seed, although they could fall to No. 3 if they stumble and Seattle wins out. This line opened with New Orleans listed as a 7.5-point home favorite. The public is all over the Saints, expecting a bounce-back cover against a struggling Vikings squad. However, despite this lopsided support, we’ve seen the line fall from Saints -7.5 to -7. This signals some sharp reverse line movement on the Vikings, specifically getting the hook (+7.5). Minnesota has value as a road dog off a loss (56 percent this season) and a dog with a line move in their favor (60 percent ATS). I’ll grab Minnesota plus the points.
Our Pick: Don’t forget about that playoff loss. Lay the points with the Saints.
Miami Dolphins (9-5) (-150, -3, O/U 47.5) at Las Vegas Raiders (7-7)
A compelling matchup because … the Raiders lost a heartbreaker in OT to the Chargers on Thursday Night Football last week and their playoff prospects took a huge hit because of it. The Dolphins are currently locked into the last playoff spot in the AFC but have the Ravens breathing down their necks and need every win they can get. Miami has been good all year, but a loss here could be the difference between making the playoffs or not.
Altruda’s Angle: Even winning this game will not result in the Dolphins clinching a postseason spot. But Miami will not go quietly after sending New England packing and ending the Pats’ 11-year run atop the AFC East last week. Tua Tagovailoa limited his mistakes and learned from them during the win over the Patriots, and Miami churned out 250 rushing yards Sunday and has averaged 143.3 yards in the last three contests. Defensively, Miami continues to force turnovers — the takeaway count is now at 26 with at least one in every contest. That could prove ominous for a Raiders team that is minus-6 in turnover margin, an issue compounded by a defense that’s been shredded for 858 yards and 74 points in losing at home the last two games. The look-ahead line was Raiders -1.5 and has since flipped to the Dolphins being favored, but it is difficult to feel fully comfortable with a rookie quarterback on the road — even against a struggling Raiders team that has failed to cover in its last four games. I’m ducking that challenge and taking under 47.5 points with more confidence in Miami’s defense traveling well.
Gable’s Guess: The Raiders come in having lost four of their last five and won’t have starting QB Derek Carr for this game. Marcus Mariota played well when he came into the game last week, just not well enough to get the victory over the Chargers. The Raiders’ lone victory in the last five weeks was that last-second win against the Jets. Their defense is giving up 36 points per game during this five-game stretch, which is almost unfathomable. This is maybe exactly what Miami’s offense needs to really get going. They’ve been winning on the strength of their defense and special teams pretty much all year. They’re only allowing 20.8 points per game on defense. You would expect Tua to have a pretty decent game here against a very poor Las Vegas defense that has almost nothing to play for. Miami is 8-1 ATS in their last nine coming into this game, so they’re on a pretty good run there. I would look to lay the points here with Miami.
Appelbaum’s Assessment: This AFC showdown is the third and final Saturday game. The Dolphins (11-3 ATS) are 8-2 over their last 10 games and just beat the Patriots 22-12, easily winning outright as 1-point home dogs. Meanwhile, the Raiders (7-7 ATS) are crumbling at the wrong time. The Raiders are technically still alive for a playoff spot, but need to win out and get serious help in order to snag the last spot. This line originally opened with the Raiders listed as 2-point home favorites. But we’ve seen heavily lopsided action come down on the Dolphins, flipping Miami all the way to a 3-point road favorite. Vegas has value as a contrarian inflated home dog in a heavily bet primetime game. The Raiders have a rest advantage, having last played on Thursday, while Miami played on Sunday. Give me Raiders +3 with their season on the line.
Our Pick: The Raiders aren’t tough. The Dolphins are. Lay the points.
Indianapolis Colts (10-4) (-131, -1.5, O/U 44.5) at Pittsburgh Steelers (11-3)
A compelling matchup because … undefeated three weeks ago, the Steelers are in freefall and have lost three straight. A loss here would mean their game next week against the Cleveland Browns would likely be for the crown in the AFC North. The Colts have quietly won three in a row and are still in play for first place in the AFC South with two games left to play.
Altruda’s Angle: About the only positive things going for the Pittsburgh Steelers right now are they have clinched a playoff spot and can clinch the AFC North with a victory. Yes, some of their struggles can be attributed to injuries, but they were absolutely bullied by the Bengals — the two-win Bengals — on Monday Night Football. Ben Roethlisberger showed a pulse in the second half trying to rally Pittsburgh, but it was too little, too late to overcome a ghastly opening quarter in which he threw for minus-2 yards. Defensively, the lengthy injury list has resulted in the Steelers’ once-stout defense being paper soft. The Bengals tore through them for 152 rushing yards and there is little doubt Colts coach Frank Reich is drawing up plays for rookie back Jonathan Taylor to gash them between the tackles and all-purpose back Nyheim Hines to dash by them on the edges. Indianapolis has won three straight games, but two of those victories were Houdini acts against the Houston Texans. When the Colts run hot offensively, they are capable of carrying a bend-but-don’t-break defense that relies on takeaways more than stops — Indianapolis is 7-1 when forcing at least two turnovers. This is another game that has seen a wild reversal from the look-ahead line when the Steelers were posted as favorites to the Colts now being narrow road favorites. Sometimes the path of least resistance is the best one, which means going with form and Indianapolis to cover the slim number.
Gable’s Guess: Indy is 4-1-1 ATS in their last six games. They come in averaging 28.6 points per game, which is sixth in the league. Both teams feature pretty good defenses. Pittsburgh is No. 1 in the league and is allowing only 18.2 points per game. The Colts have fallen off slightly from where they were midseason, but still they’re only allowing 23.1 points per game, which is 12th in the NFL. One of the concerns with Pittsburgh is how many dropped passes they’ve been having. And their running game has almost become non-existent. Maybe call me distasteful of Colts QB Philip Rivers in a must-win situation, but I’d look to take the points with Pittsburgh.
Appelbaum’s Assessment: These AFC powerhouses are gearing up for a playoff push but also trending in opposite directions. The Colts (18-6 ATS) have won three-straight and just took down the Texans 27-20, although they failed to cover as 7.5-point home favorites. Indianapolis currently owns the No. 6 seed in the AFC playoffs, but could move up to No. 4 if they catch the Titans. Indy could also fall out of the playoff picture entirely if they lose out and the Dolphins and Ravens win out. Meanwhile, the Steelers (8-6 ATS) were once undefeated but have since fallen on hard times. Pittsburgh is currently the No. 3 seed in the playoffs but could slip a few spots if they continue to lose games. The early look-ahead line on this game was Steelers -3 at home. However, we’ve seen heavy action flock to the Colts, flipping this line to Indy -1.5. The Colts hold a rest advantage as Pittsburgh is coming off a short week. Something is off with Pittsburgh lately. I’ll lay the short number and back the Colts.
Our Pick: It’s still easier to believe in Pittsburgh than Indy. Steelers plus points.
Los Angeles Rams (9-5) (+105, +1, O/U 47.5) at Seattle Seahawks (10-4)
A compelling matchup because … the Rams somehow managed to lose to the winless Jets last week in one of the biggest upsets of the season. They will be looking to get right against a Seattle team they are trailing by a game in the NFC West standings that has only lost once at home this season.
Altruda’s Angle: As a long-suffering Jets fan, Sean McVay is off my Christmas card list following that debacle last weekend. McVay said all the right things at his postgame press conference about how his team controls the narrative of how it rebounds from that defeat — and he’s right. Winning this week will be tougher with running back Cam Akers ruled out with a high ankle sprain. The Rams still have plenty of depth at the position with Malcolm Brown and Darrell Henderson Jr., but Akers was the most productive of the trio. It also puts the pressure back on Jared Goff to deliver. He showed mettle against Seattle this season in the teams’ first meeting, but the skeptics are circling again after the loss to an 0-13 team at home. The Seahawks already know about clunker losses, having suffered one at home to the New York Giants, but they were able to bounce back with consecutive victories that have resulted in a playoff berth. There were few aesthetic points in Sunday’s 20-15 win over Washington, but the Seahawks did a masterful job controlling the line of scrimmage offensively and preventing Russell Wilson from being sacked while rolling up 181 rushing yards. This game is about which team imposes its will on the other first and sticks with its gameplan the longest. Despite the absence of Akers, this line has tightened from Seahawks -3 early, and I am more than willing to root for it to keep coming down since I’m taking Seattle and placing my trust in Wilson and coach Pete Carroll.
Gable’s Guess: Even with the loss to the Jets, the Rams control their own fate in the NFC West. They can win the division with two wins in their last two games. But Seattle can clinch the division by winning this game. The teams first played each other in Week 10 this year, with the Rams winning 23-16. Seattle only has one loss since then. We’ve seen lower-scoring games from Seattle in the second half of the season. Wilson has come back to earth. With a very good Rams’ defense, I think Seattle will once again be held in check offensively. The question for the Rams, it seems every game, is which Goff will show up? We know Seattle doesn’t have a great defense, but they have been playing better as of late. Still, I see the potential here for a big bounce-back spot for Goff after the embarrassing loss on Sunday. I’m going to take the Rams plus the points here.
Appelbaum’s Assessment: This NFC West heavyweight bout is one of the most consequential games on the Week 16 slate. Los Angeles (8-6 ATS) currently occupies the No. 5 spot in the NFC playoffs but could catch Seattle with a win in this game. Meanwhile, the Seahawks (7-7 ATS) are getting hot at the right time, winning two straight and four of their last five. Seattle has already clinched a playoff spot, but needs to keep winning for seeding purposes. This line opened with Seattle listed as a 2.5-point home favorite. The public is all over Wilson and happy to fade the Rams after their putrid loss to the Jets last week. However, despite this lopsided support to Seattle, the Seahawks have fallen from -2.5 to -1.5. This signals sharp reverse line movement on the Rams. Los Angeles has value as a dog with a line move in their favor (60 percent ATS this season), a divisional dog (59 percent ATS) and a short road dog +6 or less (64 percent ATS). I like buying low on the Rams after that bad Jets loss. Give me Los Angeles plus the points.
Our Pick: Don’t see Seattle losing to L.A. twice. Laying the point.
Tennessee Titans (10-4) (+155, +3, O/U 56) at Green Bay Packers (11-3)
A compelling matchup because … a matchup of two of the best teams in their respective conferences, this game could be a darkhorse Super Bowl preview. Though both of these teams have good records, neither one has played consistently well against the better teams in the league this season.
Altruda’s Angle: The Titans averaged 39.3 points and 449.3 yards while winning three of their last four games. Derrick Henry does not get much publicity as an MVP candidate, but he has rolled up 600 rushing yards in the last four games and is 321 shy of 2,000. Green Bay is OK against the run, yielding 110.1 yards per game, but the 339 rushing attempts by their opponents are tied for third-fewest in the league. Tennessee is also multi-pronged offensively, as Ryan Tannehill has thrown for 31 touchdowns against only five interceptions and has a pair of talented receivers in Corey Davis and A.J. Brown — both of whom could reach 1,000 yards on the season in this game if a shootout takes place. That occurrence is likely, because Aaron Rodgers continues to conduct Green Bay’s offense like a world-class maestro. One of the frontrunners for MVP, Rodgers leads the NFL with 40 TD passes and only four INTs. As good as Brown and Davis have been, Packers counterpart Davante Adams has been better with 98 receptions, 1,186 yards, and 14 scoring catches. And oh yeah, running back Aaron Jones is 32 yards shy of 1,000. Neither team is a defensive juggernaut — the Packers have allowed 30 or more points five times, the Titans six — and both offenses are highly efficient, as Tennessee averages 11.45 yards per point and Green Bay is close behind at 12.15. Even with the number on a flat touchdown total of 56, the over is a solid play. But for those feeling adventurous, an opportunity to grab Rodgers getting points at home is too good to pass up – give me the Packers +2.5 and over 49.5 points in a same-game teaser.
Gable’s Guess: Great primetime game here with both teams having a lot to play for. The Packers looked very average against Carolina last week. Rodgers just didn’t have Rodgers-like numbers. The offense really stalled out and they were fortunate they could afford a game like that. They can’t do the same thing here against the Titans, who are rounding into playoff form behind Henry. Jones has been playing very well for Green Bay, and obviously Adams is always a threat. Defensively for Green Bay, I have real concerns with them stopping the run. They’re allowing 110.1 yards on the ground per game this season. They have played better the last three weeks against the run, but they haven’t been good this season against the run overall. Tennessee has the capability of beating teams with both the rush and the pass. It’s very high total in this one with both offenses being capable of putting up a lot of points. Tennessee has scored 40 or more four times this season, so they can certainly light up the scoreboard. I’m going to take the Titans plus the points here.
Appelbaum’s Assessment: The Titans (7-7 ATS) have won two straight and four of their last five, including a 46-25 beatdown of the Lions last week, easily covering as 8.5-point home favorites. Tennessee currently sits in the No. 4 seed in the AFC but needs to keep winning to fend off the Colts. Similarly, the Packers (8-6 ATS) have won four straight and just beat the Panthers 24-16, although they failed to cover as 9.5-point home favorites. Green Bay currently holds the No. 1 seed in the NFC, but needs to keep winning to hold off the Saints and Seahawks for the first-round bye. This line opened with the Packers listed as 4-point home favorites. Sharp money has sided with the Titans, dropping this line down to 3.5 or even 3 at some shops. Tennessee has value as a primetime dog (61 percent ATS this season), a short road dog +6 or less (64 percent ATS) and a dog with a line move in their favor (60 percent ATS). The total is 56. Give me the Titans plus the points.
Our Pick: The Titans play better the later the season goes. Take ’em and the points.
Last Week: 3-1-1, Season: 41-32-1
Editor’s note: Lines fluctuate throughout the week based on injuries, weather reports and other factors. Make sure to double-check odds before betting.
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