According to a recent report by The New York Times, pockets of high-population cities like London, Mumbai and New York may have lower thresholds for reaching herd immunity than scientists had originally modeled. Earlier in the year, researchers had suggested 70% of a population would have to be immune (through surviving the virus, or taking a vaccine) for the virus to stop its spread. But now — though the scientific community is still far from unified on this— many are suggesting that number is below 50%, and could even be as low as 10-20%.
Broad-scale statistical modeling relies on the oversimplification that all communities (and all of their members) have the same susceptibility to a virus. But with months of coronavirus data to now study, scientists can discern which areas have been hit hardest by spread and may have a better claim to herd immunity because of it. That includes parts of London, Mumbai and New York, where residents of all ages are often packed close together. Based on new models — the most prominent claims the herd immunity threshold is 43% — communities where the most vulnerable lost their lives, and a large portion of the rest gained antibodies, might have already seen the worst of the virus.
That said, others in the field are worried that disseminating overly optimistic findings will just encourage communities to get complacent. While a lower herd immunity threshold could protect one neighborhood from a second wave of infections and tragedy this fall, there’s no guarantee it would spare another in the same city. As public transportation, schools and restaurants roar back to life in the final quarter of the year, an area that escaped the throes of the coronavirus last time may not be so lucky again. (For example, according to data from multiple New York clinics: 68% of people from the Queens neighborhood Corona had antibodies, against just 13% from the Brooklyn neighborhood of Cobble Hill.)
Plus, it bears repeating: there is still no concrete proof that coronavirus antibodies are permanently protective.
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