NFL Kickoff: What to Know About the NFC East and How to Bet It

The first meaningful pro football game since Super Bowl LVII will take place on September 7 and we’re counting down the days until the upstart Detroit Lions head to Kansas City to take on the defending champion Chiefs in primetime on NBC and Peacock in the NFL Kickoff Game.

Each day we publish new content from now until Lions-Chiefs, we’ll be previewing a division in the NFC or AFC and analyzing how likely or unlikely it is that each of the four divisional rivals will go over their projected win total. To help with that over/under analysis, we’ve enlisted Thomas Gable, the director of race and sportsbook at the Borgata Hotel Casino & Spa in Atlantic City. Today, we’ll break down the NFL’s NFC East.

Philadelphia Eagles, 14-3 in 2022, ’23 O/U 11.5 wins

Though the Eagles could certainly come down with the dreaded Super Bowl hangover after losing to the Chiefs in Arizona, Philadelphia is one of the favorites to make it back to the NFL’s championship game. For good reason, as the Eagles are still stacked on both sides of the ball and still have head coach Nick Sirianni running things after losing both their offensive and defensive coordinators to new coaching gigs. More importantly, Philly will have Jalen Hurts back under center for his third season as the Eagles’ starting quarterback after a breakout 2022 campaign that saw his name enter into the MVP conversation.

The 25-year-old is set up for success again in 2023 as he’ll be playing behind an elite offensive line and has a ton of talented targets, including A.J. Brown, DeVonta Smith and Dallas Goedert. It won’t be pretty if something happens to Hurts and the Eagles have to turn to Marcus Mariota at quarterback, but the Eagles should still be competitive with all of the talent they have on offense. Philadelphia, which set a franchise record for sacks last season with 70, will be without five defensive starters from the 2022 season but rookie defensive lineman Jalen Carter out of Georgia should help fill that void.

“The Eagles have such good talent around Jalen Hurts on both sides of the ball. Defensively, they led the league in sacks and were able to generate a great pass rush throughout the year,” Gable says. “They were very fortunate in that they didn’t really get hit by the injury bug. I would say the only person they have lost of substance is Miles Sanders, who was their leading rusher. They’re going with a committee at running back with D’Andre Swift, Rashaad Penny and Kenneth Gainwell. They still have that really good wide receiver corps. This is, still a very, very good football team. I have them power ranked right below the Chiefs and for second overall in the NFL in my ratings. They have a tougher schedule than last season so you will probably see a little bit of regression in terms of wins, but they’re still a very good football team. I’ll side with the over.“

Dallas Cowboys, 12-5 in 2022, ’23 O/U 9.5 wins

The Cowboys enter this season as darkhorse Super Bowl contenders and will be playing without former star running back Ezekiel Elliott for the first time in seven seasons. Coming off a career year that saw him seize control of the lead-back role in Dallas, Tony Pollard will have Elliott’s job and a major workload, but Dallas will really only go as far as quarterback Dak Prescott is able to take them. Prescott, who has never played in the NFL without Elliot in the backfield, had a career-high 15 interceptions last season and has vowed to be more accurate moving forward. If Dallas has any aspirations of going deep in the playoffs, he better be.

Micah Parsons and DeMarcus Lawrence will anchor a defensive front that is good as any in the league and star cornerback Trevon Diggs, who just signed a five-year extension with Dallas, will be the focal point of a secondary that could be quite formidable thanks to the addition of former Defensive Player of the Year Stephon Gilmore. There’s always the chance that head coach Mike McCarthy bungles things up the way he tends to do, and he’ll almost certainly be fired if he does. Jerry Jones has given this core enough chances and will want to see results. Jones may already be covering his bases in case Dallas has a bad year, as Trey Lance, who was acquired for pennies on the dollar from the 49ers, could potentially replace Prescott.

“There’s a lot of optimism around this team for the Super Bowl. They are our biggest liability at this point. A little unusual. Zeke’s gone, so you’ll have Tony Pollard carrying the full load for them at running back. I think that’s a good thing,” Gable says. “I think it really comes down to Dak again. Is he going to be good Dak or bad Dak or are you going to get a mixture of both? There’s no doubt the offense can put up numbers and the defense is also very good. This team should make the playoffs and I think potentially could challenge the Eagles in the division if some things break the right way for them. The Eagles are the better team on paper, but Dallas will be right there. Give me the over.“

Philip Rivers Was Almost a San Francisco 49er Last Season

If the San Francisco 49ers had been able to beat the Eagles and make it to the Super Bowl, they would have given Rivers a call

New York Giants, 9-7-1 in 2022, ’23 O/U 7.5 wins

Overachievers last season under first-year coach Brian Daboll, the Giants made the playoffs and upset the favored Vikings before getting demolished by the Eagles in the second round of the postseason. Quarterback Daniel Jones was brutal in that game and took five sacks and threw an interception while failing to score a touchdown, but was nonetheless signed to a massive contract this offseason. Jones may not be a franchise quarterback but is certainly being paid like one. Though Jones has shown flashes, it remains to be seen if he can consistently play like one.

The key to New York’s success on offense last season, running back Saquon Barkley, is back with the team after a contract dispute and will be motivated to play well in order to get paid in full next offseason. He’ll have some help moving the chains this season as New York traded for star tight end Darren Waller. He instantly slots in as New York’s No. 1 receiver, and the Giants are hoping Waller can stay healthy and replicate the form he exhibited in the 2020 season when he had 107 receptions for 1,196 yards and nine touchdowns.

“Brian Daboll and his coaching got a lot out of his team last season and a lot out of Daniel Jones, who I don’t think extremely highly of. The receiving corps is below average on this team,” Gable says. “It’s nice that Barkley is going to go for them again, but their defense isn’t anything great. They have a very difficult schedule this year with games against San Fran, Seattle, Miami, Buffalo, Green Bay and New Orleans. Dallas and Philly are in a different class than Washington. That’s probably going to be four losses right there. Even if they split with Washington, you’re looking at five losses in the regular season just amongst the division. I’m taking the under with the Giants.“

Washington Commanders, 8-8-1 in ’22, ’23 O/U 6.5 wins

Finally free of incompetent owner and boorish human being Daniel Snyder, the Commanders have a chance to turn the page and be a decent football team — a chance, but not a good one as Washington will be relying on 2022 fifth-round pick Sam Howell to run the team’s offense. That may prove to be quite difficult to do as Washington has new starters at four offensive line positions and could give up a lot of sacks. Howell has a little bit of wiggle to his game, but he’ll need at least a little time in the pocket to establish the threat of a pass before he can run.

Eric Bieniemy, who coordinated the offense in Kansas City last season, will be helping Howell, who completed 11-of-19 passes for 169 yards and one TD and added 35 yards and one TD on five carries in his lone start as a rookie last season, get the most out of Washington’s limited offensive weapons, but the Commanders will need to win games with their defense. If they don’t, this will likely be head coach Ron Rivera’s last year in D.C. as Washington’s new owners will likely want to clean house and get the stink of Snyder completely off of the Commanders unless they have a successful season.

“In terms of power rating, I only have four teams worse ranked worse than Washington,” Gable says. “The organization is obviously emerging from Snyder at this point and maybe brighter days are ahead, but when you’re going into battle with Sam Howell as your starting quarterback it doesn’t really give me a whole lot of confidence in you offensively. Defensively, I think they will be good. They allowed only 20.2 points per game last year. Chase Young will be back this year from his torn ACL. The Commanders also have an extremely hard schedule this year. Probably one of the toughest, if not the toughest in the NFL. Give me the under with this team.“