Heading into last weekend’s Conference Championships in the NFL, the overwhelming favorite to win the Super Bowl’s MVP award at Caesars Sportsbook was Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes at +170.
Unfortunately for those who bet on Mahomes to capture the same award he walked away with two years ago following a win over the 49ers in Super Bowl LIV, the Chiefs were upset by Cincinnati Bengals in overtime in the AFC Championship Game, rendering any wagers on the 26-year-old quarterback null and void. However, anyone who backed Cincy quarterback Joe Burrow at 10/1 to win MVP of Super Bowl LVI before the Bengals beat the Chiefs has to be feeling pretty good about their wager, as the second-year quarterback is now listed at +220 to win the award, trailing only odds-on MVP favorite Matthew Stafford, who is now listed at +120.
While a bet on one of the two quarterbacks is probably the safest considering how much they touch the ball and can directly and obviously influence the outcome of the game, the winning QB of the Super Bowl has only won the MVP award four of the last six times, and two of those went to Tom Brady.
While Brady was almost certainly the odds-on favorite to win Super Bowl LI against the Falcons, he wasn’t last year, when he beat out odds-on favorite Mahomes. And when the Eagles beat the Patriots in Super Bowl LII, Nick Foles won the award over Brady, who was favored to win both the game and MVP but lost both. “Generally, the quarterback of the winning team will always be in the discussion, but it’s always dependent on how the game plays out,” Caesars Sportsbook VP of trading Craig Mucklow tells InsideHook.
Feeling like you may want to avoid a square play by picking one of the QBs and try to get a bit sharp instead? Here’s what Mucklow suggests for making an MVP bet on Super Bowl LVI that steps outside of the quarterback box.
InsideHook: Who is your favorite darkhorse candidate for SB MVP?
Mucklow: My favorite dark horse candidate to win Super Bowl MVP would be either Aaron Donald or Von Miller. I could see a defensive player stealing the award given the Bengals’ offensive line issues and if there’s a mediocre showing by the offense for the Rams.
For those looking to hedge their bets between two players but still come out ahead, who would you suggest?
The best way to hedge in this game would be to choose your favorite quarterback-wide receiver combination. Obviously, the winning quarterback will always be in play and we like either Cooper Kupp or Ja’Marr Chase to be in the mix if it’s a high-scoring game.
How much do Super Bowl MVP lines fluctuate during the lead-up to kickoff?
Essentially it will depend on money coming in and if there are any injuries to key positional players, such as if Kupp were to get injured prior to game day. In that scenario, Odell Beckham’s odds would get readjusted to a lower mark as he would become a more popular pick.
Any overall tips or advice for betting Super Bowl MVP based on past trends?
The biggest piece of advice is to simply choose a player on the team you think will win the game. Once you pick your team, you can then concentrate on those players to make your pick. You can always hedge your pick as the game progresses with live in-game betting on the Caesars Sportsbook app.
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