As if we didn’t have enough existential threats looming on the horizon, Atlantic hurricane season is almost upon us. You may recall that last year’s was the third-worst on record — and 2020’s has the alarming distinction of being the worst ever recorded. According to a new forecast from AccuWeather, this year’s might be slightly better than last year’s — but it still sounds pretty bad.
A new article at NJ.com summarizes the work done by a group of forecasters at AccuWeather. Their predictions suggest that the 2022 hurricane season will be slightly milder than 2021’s, but still far above the average hurricane season based on the last 30 years’ worth of data.
Their forecast points to 16-20 named storms, with between six and eight hurricanes — three to five of them considered major. Four to six will reach the United States, the forecasters say.
A key thing to watch right now is the current state of La Niña. If it remains strong, the forecasters say that it could increase the number of storms — but if it ends up losing steam, it could have the opposite effect on storms in the Atlantic.
The article also cites relatively high surface temperatures in the Atlantic hurricane basin as a factor in this strong forecast. Can we attribute that to climate change as well? Seems all too likely.
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