The sun will rise, the IRS will get their money, and the Patriots’ win total will be in double digits.
The last time the Patriots failed to win 10 or more games was when they went 9-7 the season after they won their first Super Bowl. To put in perspective how long ago that was, Rob Gronkowski, the team’s 29-year-old All-Pro tight end, was still in middle school.
That makes it 15 straight years the team has won double-digit games—which is a big reason why, despite rumors of a palace coup in Foxboro, Vegas installed the Patriots over/under for wins this season at 11.
According to Jon Price of SportsInformationTraders.com, that’s exactly where it should be – and you should take advantage.
Price, a featured guest on Boston sports radio station WEEI who has acquired the nickname the “Patriots Whisperer” thanks to his success betting the team, is high on the Pats even though they have the highest over/under win total of any team in the NFL.
“The Patriots are very fortunate this year to play in what is arguably the worst division in football, the AFC East,” Price told RealClearSports. “There won’t be a single team in that division over the .500 mark and I can see New England going 8-0 within the division this year. At worst 7-1.”
And, even though they play out-of-conference games at home against Super Bowl contenders in the Minnesota Vikings and Green Bay Packers as well as tough AFC matchups on the road against teams like the Pittsburgh Steelers and Jacksonville Jaguars, Price likes New England’s chances of going over 11 wins.
“If those games [Minnesota and Green Bay] were on the road, I wouldn’t be as bullish on this number,” he told RCS. “Even if we call those games a split, I can’t find any value on betting the team to win under 11 games. I just don’t see this team losing five regular-season games. ”
In fact, after handicapping New England’s entire schedule, Price discovered he likes taking the over on the Pats’ win total – a lot.
“There isn’t a game on the schedule the Patriots won’t be favored in, outside of potentially the December 16th game at Pittsburgh,” he said. “Las Vegas is basically telling you this team has a chance to go 16-0 and they finish up the season with games at home against the Bills and Jets. It would be a huge upset if this team won anything less than 14 games.”
Taking into account the team has gone 15-1 straight up on the road in the last two seasons and has won more than 11 games for eight straight years, Price is pounding taking the over as a solid, solid bet.
“I’ve gone over on the Patriots total eight years in a row and I’ve been right eight times,” he said. “They haven’t always been the most successful playoff team, but during the regular season with no spread and simply betting the total, this is an easy choice to make.”
If you’re a Patriots fan (or you just want to make some easy money), you’ve got to hope he’s right.
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