NFL Kickoff: What to Know About the NFC North and How to Bet It

The first meaningful pro football game since Super Bowl LVII will take place on September 7 and we’re counting down the days until the upstart Detroit Lions head to Kansas City to take on the defending champion Chiefs in primetime on NBC and Peacock in the NFL Kickoff Game.

Each day we publish new content from now until Lions-Chiefs, we’ll be previewing a division in the NFC and AFC and analyzing how likely or unlikely it is that each of the four divisional rivals will go over their projected win total. To help with that over/under analysis, we’ve enlisted Thomas Gable, the director of race and sportsbook at the Borgata Hotel Casino & Spa in Atlantic City. Today, we’ll break down the NFL’s NFC North.

Minnesota Vikings, 13-4 in 2022, ’23 O/U 8.5 wins

The winners of an obscene amount of one-score games last season, the Vikings were the comeback kids of the NFL and were somehow able to eke out 13 wins despite having a negative point differential (-3) in their first 17 games. Their 18th game, a playoff loss to the Giants, was a major disappointment but also somewhat par for the course for Minnesota fans who are used to seeing their team fold in big spots. Star running back Dalvin Cook was released in a cost-cutting measure that will give the Vikings some room to retain quarterback Kirk Cousins, who is in a contract year for the fourth time in his career, if he has a good season.

There’s no guarantee that will happen as the 35-year-old, who first signed with the Vikings in 2018, threw a career-high 14 interceptions last season and looked very shaky against the Giants in the postseason. Minnesota’s offensive line always seems to be in a state of flux, but Cousins does have the advantage of throwing to all-world wide receiver Justin Jefferson and pass-catching tight end T.J. Hockenson. The Vikings also selected wideout Jordan Addison in the first round of April’s draft to give Cousins another weapon. Of Minnesota’s 13 wins last season, eight came at home, a feat it will be difficult for the Vikings to repeat this season.

“The Vikings were nine games over 500 last season so the win total of 8.5 season looks low at first,” Gable says. “The bottom line is the Vikings were 11-0 in one-score games and it was the offense that saved them time and time again. They should never have won 13 games. But to say that they’re gonna lose five more games than they did last year, I’m still hesitant. They hired Brian Flores as their defensive coordinator. Hopefully he can make some improvements and turn that defense around. They’re an interesting team. I’ll side with the over.“

Detroit Lions, 9-8 in 2022, ’23 O/U 9.5 wins

With a combined record of 17-46 over the previous four seasons, the Lions were able to shake off a tough start of the season to finish out the year at 9-8 after winning eight of their 10 final games. That late surge of success is fresh in oddsmakers’ minds as the Lions, the same team that has been ruining Thanksgivings in Detroit for decades, are favored to finish first in the NFC North for the first time since 1993 when Barry Sanders was in the backfield. For that to happen, Jared Goff will have to replicate his play from last season, when he finished no lower than sixth among NFL quarterbacks in passing attempts, yards and touchdowns.

That may not be that easy to do, as teams will be more prepared to defend star receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown following his breakout last season. The Lions did draft playmaking running back Jahmyr Gibbs to give Detroit more firepower, but success could come down to how much a defensive unit that couldn’t stop a nosebleed for large portions of last season has improved. For the first time in years, the Lions will begin a season with realistic expectations of success. If they fail to meet them, it will be interesting to see if the rosy perception of third-year head coach Dan Campbell changes.

“The Lions went 5-1 in the division last year and played pretty well in their last 10 games. In that time, Jared Goff was very good in terms of protection,” Gable says. “He only threw one interception compared to 17 touchdowns in that period. We know that they can score, but defensively they were 28th in scoring in giving up 25.1 points per game. They let up 392.4 yards per game, which was dead last. There definitely seems to be optimism amongst bettors taking the over, but I wouldn’t be surprised if this team finishes at 9-8. I wouldn’t be surprised at all. I’m rolling with the under.“

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Green Bay Packers, 8-9 in 2022, ’23 O/U 7.5 wins

For the first time since the final year of the George H. W. Bush administration, the Green Bay Packers will begin a season without either Brett Favre or Aaron Rodgers as the team’s starting quarterback. The franchise won two Super Bowls during the three decades of Favre-Rodgers, but probably should have been able to win at least one more title between the two Hall-of-Fame quarterbacks. Regardless, the team will move forward with Jordan Love under center and see what the 24-year-old learned during his three seasons of backing up Rodgers.

The jury is still out on whether Love has what it takes to be a franchise quarterback, but Green Bay general manager Brian Gutekunst has done his best to surround him with talent in the form of wide receivers Romeo Doubs and Christian Watson and tight end Luke Musgrave. That’s to Love’s advantage as well as Gutekunst’s, as Green Bay’s GM is a huge reason why Rodgers is now playing for the Jets in New York. Love playing well would also be a feather in the cap of head coach Matt LaFleur, who won 13 games in his first three seasons in Green Bay before the team’s faceplant last season. LaFleur winning with Love instead of Rodgers would validate him.

“With Jordan Love now taking over the team, the Packers actually have the most futures tickets written on them to win the division Futures,” Gable says. “There’s not much data to go on with Love. He’s only started one game, and he’s played in just 10. Overall, they have one of the easier schedules in the league and Love has the backfield of Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon to lean on. Last year Christian Watson emerged with his speed at wide receiver. I have the same questions about Love that I think everybody does, but I certainly could see them going over their win total. Give me the over with Green Bay.“

Chicago Bears, 3-14 in 2022, ’23 O/U 7.5 wins

The worst team in the NFL last season, the Bears had the opportunity to use the No. 1 pick on a quarterback but traded it to the Panthers because they are confident that Justin Fields will make a leap forward in his third year in the NFL. Fields has been up and down during his brief pro career but also has not been surrounded by too much talent on offense. Chicago started to address that problem by dealing the No. 32 overall pick for Chase Claypool at last season’s trade deadline and then went on to add DJ Moore and Nate Davis during the offseason.

Chicago lost 13 out of 14 games to close the season and went 1-6 in games decided by seven points or fewer overall, so the Bears don’t really have anywhere to go but up. Additions of Tremaine Edmunds, Yannick Ngakoue and DeMarcus Walker on defense will help and the Bears almost have to improve on last year’s minus-137 point differential, but Fields will have to take a major leap for Chicago to contend in the NFC North in any way, shape or form.

“The Bears were a terrible football team last year on both sides of the ball,” Gable says. “Defensively they let up 27.2 points per game and offensively they were last in passing yards at 130.5 yards per game. Everybody’s expecting Justin Fields to make this big step forward. They certainly added some pieces that should help, but I don’t know. I just don’t know if his accuracy is there. To say they’re going to improve by five wins to get over 7.5 is maybe too big of a step. I would lean towards the under here.”