On Sunday night, the stars will hit the red carpet for the 77th Annual Emmy Awards. Our style editor, Paolo Sandoval, will be covering all of the best celebrity menswear in real-time, so stay tuned for that, but in the meantime, we’re here to speculate about which TV shows will be victorious and offer our two cents on which ones actually deserve the acclaim. Will The Studio slide past The Bear and Hacks in the Comedy categories? Can The Pitt pull off a big upset in the Outstanding Drama race? Is 23 nominations for The White Lotus too many? (Spoiler alert: yes.)
We’ll have to wait until the ceremony officially kicks off at 8 p.m. EST on CBS and Paramount+ this Sunday to find out the answers to these questions (and other pressing ones like “what will Jeremy Allen White wear?”). But until then, you can find our thoughts on who will win, who should win and who got snubbed in each of the major categories below.
Outstanding Comedy Series
Abbott Elementary
The Bear
Hacks
Nobody Wants This
Only Murders in the Building
Shrinking
The Studio
What We Do in the Shadows
Will Win: The Studio
Should Win: Hacks
Got Snubbed: The Righteous Gemstones
There’s nothing Hollywood loves more than stories about Hollywood, and Seth Rogen’s The Studio is a rare one that manages to be actually funny, extremely well-shot and full of excellent celebrity cameos without being self-aggrandizing. Even though Hacks — another show about the entertainment biz — managed to pull off a surprise victory last year, beating out The Bear, The Studio feels like the obvious frontrunner here. It’s an extremely stacked category this year, but it still feels slightly insane that The Righteous Gemstones, one of the funniest comedies of the past few years that also took a huge swing in its final season, was ignored by the Academy in its final season.
“The Righteous Gemstones” Just Took One of the Biggest Swings in Recent Memory — And It Paid Off
After nearly two years off the air, the HBO comedy returned with a gritty, standalone Civil War episode starring Bradley Cooper. Why not?Outstanding Lead Actor in a Comedy Series
Adam Brody, Nobody Wants This
Seth Rogen, The Studio
Jason Segel, Shrinking
Martin Short, Only Murders in the Building
Jeremy Allen White, The Bear
Will Win: Seth Rogen
Should Win: Jason Segel
Got Snubbed: Steve Martin, Only Murders in the Building
Jeremy Allen White has dominated this category the past few years — and rightfully so — but given the mixed reviews that Season 3 of The Bear (the season that was eligible for this year’s ceremony) received and the ongoing debate over whether or not the show is actually a comedy, it feels safe to assume his reign is over. Given how many nominations The Studio received this year, Rogen feels like a lock. But after two seasons, it’s time someone acknowledged the excellent work Jason Segel is doing on Shrinking. Given that show’s subject matter (Segel plays a grief-stricken therapist coping with the unexpected death of his wife), he’s been able to flex his dramatic chops in the role a bit, but it’s also still an incredibly funny performance, one that feels like a return to form that fans of Forgetting Sarah Marshall or I Love You, Man will surely appreciate.
Outstanding Lead Actress in a Comedy Series
Uzo Aduba, The Residence
Kristen Bell, Nobody Wants This
Quinta Brunson, Abbott Elementary
Ayo Edibiri, The Bear
Jean Smart, Hacks
Will Win: Jean Smart
Should Win: Jean Smart
Got Snubbed: Natasha Lyonne, Poker Face
Jean Smart has won this category every time she’s been eligible for it for Hacks, and there’s no reason to think she won’t earn her fourth trophy for her work as Deborah Vance this year. That’s probably as it should be (there’s an argument to be made for Ayo Edibiri in The Bear, too), but it does feel like an oversight to not even nominate Natasha Lyonne for her second season of Poker Face.
Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Comedy Series
Ike Barinholtz, The Studio
Colman Domingo, The Four Seasons
Harrison Ford, Shrinking
Jeff Hiller, Somebody Somewhere
Ebon Moss-Bachrach, The Bear
Michael Urie, Shrinking
Bowen Yang, Saturday Night Live
Will Win: Harrison Ford
Should Win: Harrison Ford
Got Snubbed: Walton Goggins, The Righteous Gemstones
This is a crowded field of deserving contenders, and it feels like one of the biggest toss-ups in this year’s race. Of all the Bear cast members, Ebon Moss-Bachrach seems most likely to defend his title and win for a third consecutive year. (After all, this is the same governing body that awarded Julia Louis-Dreyfus six Emmys in a row for Veep; they love a repeat winner). But this is the first time Harrison Ford is nominated in this category for Shrinking — and, in fact, the first time in his long, storied career that he’s nominated for an Emmy in general. We all know how award shows love to honor beloved legends in their twilight years, and the 83-year-old Ford is extremely deserving. The work he did in Shrinking‘s second season as a therapist recently diagnosed with Parkinson’s was impressive, and if your eyes were still dry at the end of his monologue in the season finale, you’re probably dead inside.
Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Comedy Series
Liza Colon-Zayas, The Bear
Hannah Einbinder, Hacks
Kathryn Hahn, The Studio
Janelle James, Abbott Elementary
Catherine O’Hara, The Studio
Sheryl Lee Ralph, Abbott Elementary
Jessica Williams, Shrinking
Will Win: Liza Colon-Zayas
Should Win: Hannah Einbinder
Got Snubbed: Megan Stalter, Hacks
Colon-Zayas has won in the past for her work as Tina on The Bear, and in Season 3, her character had a showcase episode (“Napkins”) that was very well-received. Kathryn Hahn and Catherine O’Hara will likely split the votes for The Studio, and Sheryl Lee Ralph and Janelle James will do the same for Abbott Elementary, and while this one is definitely Colon-Zayas’s to lose, there’s a chance that Hannah Einbinder could sneak in and finally win a much-deserved Emmy for her performance on Hacks (a performance that, if we’re being honest, is really a co-lead with Jean Smart’s).
Outstanding Drama Series
Andor
The Diplomat
The Last of Us
Paradise
The Pitt
Severance
Slow Horses
The White Lotus
Will Win: Severance
Should Win: Severance
Got Snubbed: Squid Game
There have been rumblings that The Pitt, HBO’s critically acclaimed medical series, could pull off an upset here. That’d be impressive — especially for a show with only one season under its belt — but let’s be honest: there’s no competing with Severance. The show is a phenomenon, and Season 2’s chaotic finale left fans counting down the days until Season 3. The White Lotus‘s move from the Anthology or Limited Series categories to the Drama categories couldn’t have come at a worse time for them; Severance is the clear favorite.
Outstanding Lead Actor in a Drama Series
Sterling K. Brown, Paradise
Gary Oldman, Slow Horses
Pedro Pascal, The Last of Us
Adam Scott, Severance
Noah Wyle, The Pitt
Will Win: Noah Wyle
Should Win: Adam Scott
Got Snubbed: Diego Luna, Andor
Adam Scott is absolutely doing Emmy-worthy work on Severance. (He’s essentially pulling double duty as Innie Mark and Outie Mark.) But this feels like the place where a consolation prize for The Pitt feels most appropriate. They won’t win Best Drama, but they’ll still be recognized with a Best Lead Actor victory for Noah Wyle. It’s a chance for the Academy to right a wrong and finally reward him for playing a doctor. (Wyle was nominated five times for his role as Dr. John Carter on ER but never won.)
Outstanding Lead Actress in a Drama Series
Kathy Bates, Matlock
Sharon Horgan, Bad Sisters
Britt Lower, Severance
Bella Ramsey, The Last of Us
Keri Russell, The Diplomat
Will Win: Britt Lower
Should Win: Britt Lower
Got Snubbed: Elisabeth Moss, The Handmaid’s Tale
Britt Lower feels like the obvious choice here, just in terms of the way her character(s), Helly R./Helena, became such a talking point for fans of Severance this season. Like Scott, she’s essentially playing two characters instead of one, but the differences between Helly and Helena are much more pronounced than in Innie and Outie Mark. Lower did an incredible job subtly shifting the way she carries herself or even sometimes changing the way she speaks to signal to the viewers which version we’re watching.
Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Drama Series
Zach Cherry, Severance
Walton Goggins, The White Lotus
Jason Isaacs, The White Lotus
James Marsden, Paradise
Sam Rockwell, The White Lotus
Tramell Tillman, Severance
John Turturro, Severance
Will Win: Walton Goggins
Should Win: Tramell Tillman
Got Snubbed: Patrick Ball, The Pitt
There has to be at least one White Lotus victory on Sunday night, and if there’s anyone likely to take home a trophy for Season 3, it’s Walton Goggins. The character actor’s star has been on the rise lately, with a hosting gig on Saturday Night Live, a series of Walmart commercials and a rumored feud with costar Aimee Lou Wood that dominated tabloids. But no one deserves this more than Tramell Tillman, who has been pitch-perfect as the menacing Mr. Milchick on Severance. Hell, that marching band scene alone would earn him a trophy if there’s any justice in this world.
Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Drama
Patricia Arquette, Severance
Carrie Coon, The White Lotus
Katherine LaNasa, The Pitt
Julianne Nicholson, Paradise
Parker Posey, The White Lotus
Natasha Rothwell, The White Lotus
Aimee Lou Wood, The White Lotus
Will Win: Carrie Coon
Should Win: Katherine LaNasa
Got Snubbed: Dichen Lachman, Severance
Is Parker Posey deserving of recognition for the way she played the lorazepam-addled matriarch on Season 3 of The White Lotus? Of course. But is what she did really dramatic? Posey was the show’s comic relief, in a lot of ways, so seeing her in this category is a bit odd, and the fact that she’s pitted against three of her co-stars in this category makes her win even less likely. Of these choices, Katherine LaNasa’s performance as charge nurse Dana Evans on The Pitt seems most deserving, but the omission of Lachman — especially on such a Gemma-heavy season of Severance — feels like a wild oversight.
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