NBA Testing Free-Throw Rule That Could Fundamentally Change Modern Basketball

Daryl Morey and Mike D’Antoni, the respective GM and Head Coach of the Houston Rockets, have long been praised for their highly analytical, data-driven approach to basketball. And while that approach has yielded strong results — they’ve made the playoffs seven years in a row and had the league’s best record in the 2017/18 season — it may soon be derailed by a prospective rule change, argues Kyle Wagner of the New York Daily News.

This season, the NBA’s developmental G League will experiment with a new rule: players will shoot a single free throw each time they are fouled this season, “regardless of how many points are on the line.” In other words, a two-point foul would still be worth two points and a three-point foul would still be worth three points … but players will take a solitary shot to earn them.

The rule is intended to speed up pace of play, but as Wagner points out, it could have huge knock-on effects for teams whose offensive output relies heavily on getting to the line, most notably the Rockets. Why? Because “the most efficient shot in basketball is not the three-pointer; it is the free throw,” but under the proposed rule change, free throws are likely to become far less efficient. Data suggests second free-throw attempts tend to be made at a much higher rate (4-to-5 percentage points); give players only one make-or-break shot, and the efficiency of the free throw will drop.

Will the rule-change fix basketball and deter the James Hardens and Chris Pauls of the world from throwing up otherwise inadvisable shots every time they see an opportunity to draw contact? Probably not overnight. But it could prove to be a key first step in incentivizing players to attack the rim and rely on offensive systems that facilitate open shots … rather than, well, this.