Entering the third Sunday of the 2018 NFL season, we know two things about the Kansas City Chiefs:
No. 1: They are going to score a lot of points.
No. 2: They are going to give up a lot of points.
Averaging 40 points a game and 32.5 points allowed per game, the Chiefs will play host to the San Francisco 49ers and ascendant quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo on Sunday in a game that, thanks in no small part to No. 1 and 2 above, has the highest over/under of any game this week at 56.
Handicappers are figuring that Garoppolo will be able to put up points and that his counterpart, first-year starter Patrick Mahomes, will be able to do the same.
At least with regard to Mahomes, that feels like a reasonably safe bet as the young quarterback’s 10 passing touchdowns are the most ever through the first two weeks of a season and he is also just the second Kansas City quarterback to throw at least four touchdowns in back-to-back games.
Garoppolo hasn’t been quite as prolific, but he also hasn’t faced a defense that is as leaky as Kansas City’s, nor has he thrown the ball as much as Mahomes because of game flow.
That should change this week as the Chiefs will likely score early and often, forcing San Francisco to let Garoppolo sling the rock in order to move the chains and catch up. Given how bad Kansas City’s defense is, Garoppolo and the Niners might just be able to keep up.
And, even if they can’t, they at least have a good shot to cover as they are +7 at Kansas City on Sunday.
At least that’s how handicapper Dave Michaels of SportsInformationTraders sees it.
“With the start to the season Mahomes has had, its no wonder the public is jumping on the Chiefs at home this week,” Michaels said. “The problem is, as good as their offense has been, their defense has been just as bad. Giving up over 500 yards per game will lead to a lot of shootouts, but usually not a lot of winning.”
And, whether the Chiefs end up winning or not, that doesn’t necessarily mean they’ll cover the seven-point spread.
“It’s true that we have seen some growing pains so far in San Francisco coach Kyle Shanahan’s offense, but getting seven points presents a lot of value for this team, even on the road in a hostile environment against a high-scoring team,” Michaels said.
He added: “This week, the 49ers will look to control the ball and slow the game down and Garoppolo will keep the clock running with short passes. I believe the 49ers will do just enough to keep this a one-possession game, thus covering the spread this Sunday.”
With this call, Michaels is looking to extend his streak of slick picks to three games. After correctly guessing the Jaguars would win by more than three points in Week 1, Michaels estimated the Titans would “squeak by at home in a fairly low-scoring game” in Week 2.
The final score of that contest? Titans 20 – Texans 17.
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